Auditing-Ongoing Project 4

Auditing-Ongoing Project 4

Seminar 5

7-68

1.Describe the primary risks facing Ford.

We have listed below (not necessarily in order of importance or probability of occurrence) the most significant risk factors applicable to us:

Decline in industry sales volume, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, due to financial crisis, recession, geopolitical events, or other factors. Because we, like other manufacturers, have a high proportion of relatively fixed structural costs, relatively small changes in industry sales volume can have a substantial effect on our cash flow and profitability. If industry vehicle sales were to decline to levels significantly below our planning assumption, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, due to financial crisis, recession, geopolitical events, or other factors, such as occurred during 2008 and 2009, our financial condition and results of operations would be substantially adversely affected. For discussion of economic trends, see the “Overview” section of Item 7.

Decline in Ford’s market share or failure to achieve growth. To maintain competitive economies of scale and grow our global market share, we must grow our market share in fast-growing newly developed and emerging markets, particularly in our Asia Pacific region and our Middle East & Africa region, as well as maintain or grow market share in mature markets. Our market share in certain growing markets, such as China, is lower than it is in our mature markets. A significant decline in our market share in mature markets or failure to achieve growth in newly developing or emerging markets, whether due to capacity constraints, competitive pressures, protectionist trade policies, or other factors, could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford’s new or existing products. Although we conduct extensive market research before launching new or refreshed vehicles, many factors both within and outside our control affect the success of new or existing products in the marketplace. Offering vehicles that customers want and value can mitigate the risks of increasing price competition and declining demand, but vehicles that are perceived to be less desirable (whether in terms of price, quality, styling, safety, overall value, fuel efficiency, or other attributes) can exacerbate these risks. For example, if a new model were to experience quality issues at the time of launch, the vehicle’s perceived quality could be affected even after the issues had been corrected, resulting in lower sales volumes, market share, and profitability. In addition, with increased consumer interconnectedness through the internet, social media, and other media, mere allegations relating to quality, safety, fuel efficiency, corporate social responsibility, or other key attributes can negatively impact our reputation or market acceptance of our products, even where such allegations prove to be inaccurate or unfounded.

Market shift away from sales of larger, more profitable vehicles beyond Ford’s current planning assumption, particularly in the United States. A shift in consumer preferences away from larger, more profitable vehicles at levels beyond our current planning assumption could result in an immediate and substantial adverse impact on our financial condition and results of operations. Although we have a balanced portfolio of small, medium, and large cars, utilities, and trucks with competitive fuel efficiency, a shift in consumer preferences away from sales of larger, more profitable vehicles at levels greater than our current planning assumption—whether because of spiking fuel prices, a decline in the construction industry, government actions or incentives, or other reasons—still could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

An increase in or continued volatility of fuel prices, or reduced availability of fuel. An increase in fuel prices, continued price volatility, or reduced availability of fuel, particularly in the United States, could result in weakening of demand for relatively more-profitable large cars, utilities, and trucks, while increasing demand for relatively less profitable small vehicles. Continuation or acceleration of such a trend beyond our current planning assumption, or volatility in demand across segments, could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Continued or increased price competition resulting from industry excess capacity, currency fluctuations, or other factors. The global automotive industry is intensely competitive, with manufacturing capacity far exceeding current demand. According to the January 2015 report issued by IHS Automotive, the global automotive industry is estimated to have had excess capacity of about 29 million units in 2014. Industry overcapacity has resulted in many manufacturers offering marketing incentives on vehicles in an attempt to maintain and grow market share; these incentives historically have included a combination of subsidized financing or leasing programs, price rebates, and other incentives. As a result, we are not necessarily able to set our prices to offset higher costs of marketing incentives, commodity or other cost increases, or the impact of adverse currency fluctuations, including pricing advantages foreign competitors may have because of their weaker home market currencies. Continuation of or increased excess capacity could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates. As a resource intensive manufacturing operation, we are exposed to a variety of market and asset risks, including the effects of changes in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates. These risks affect our Automotive and Financial Services sectors. We monitor and manage these exposures as an integral part of our overall risk management program, which recognizes the unpredictability of markets and seeks to reduce potentially adverse effects on our business. Nevertheless, changes in currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates cannot always be predicted or hedged. In addition, because of intense price competition and our high level of fixed costs, we may not be able to address such changes even if foreseeable. As a result, substantial unfavorable changes in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, or interest rates could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Adverse effects resulting from economic, geopolitical, or other events. With the increasing interconnectedness of global economic and financial systems, a financial crisis, natural disaster, geopolitical crisis, or other significant event in one area of the world can have an immediate and devastating impact on markets around the world. For example, the financial crisis that began in the United States in 2008 quickly spread to other markets; natural disasters in Japan and Thailand during 2011 caused production interruptions and delays not just in Asia Pacific but other regions around the world; and episodes of increased geopolitical tensions or acts of terrorism have at times caused adverse reactions that may spread to economies around the globe.

Economic distress of suppliers that may require Ford to provide substantial financial support or take other measures to ensure supplies of components or materials and could increase costs, affect liquidity, or cause production constraints or disruptions. The automotive industry supply base experienced increased economic distress due to the sudden and substantial drop in industry sales volumes beginning in 2008. Dramatically lower industry sales volume made existing debt obligations and fixed cost levels difficult for many suppliers to manage, increasing pressure on the supply base. As a result, suppliers not only were less willing to reduce prices, but some requested direct or indirect price increases as well as new and shorter payment terms. At times, we have had to provide financial assistance to key suppliers to ensure an uninterrupted supply of materials and components. In addition, where suppliers have exited certain lines of business or closed facilities due to the economic downturn or other reasons, we generally experience additional costs associated with transitioning to new suppliers. Each of these factors could have a substantial adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations.

Single-source supply of components or materials. Many components used in our vehicles are available only from a single supplier and cannot be re-sourced quickly or inexpensively to another supplier (due to long lead times, new contractual commitments that may be required by another supplier before ramping up to provide the components or materials, etc.). In addition to the general risks described above regarding interruption of supplies, which are exacerbated in the case of single-source suppliers, the exclusive supplier of a key component potentially could exert significant bargaining power over price, quality, warranty claims, or other terms relating to a component.

2. Describe the primary risks facing Toyota

The worldwide automotive market is highly competitive. The worldwide automotive market is highly competitive. Toyota faces intense competition from automotive manufacturers in the markets in which it operates. Although the global economy continues to recover gradually, competition in the automotive industry has further intensified amidst difficult overall market conditions. In addition, competition is likely to further intensify in light of further continuing globalization in the worldwide 4 automotive industry, possibly resulting in further industry reorganization. Factors affecting competition include product quality and features, safety, reliability, fuel economy, the amount of time required for innovation and development, pricing, customer service and financing terms. Increased competition may lead to lower vehicle unit sales, which may result in a further downward price pressure and adversely affect Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations. Toyota’s ability to adequately respond to the recent rapid changes in the automotive market and to maintain its competitiveness will be fundamental to its future success in existing and new markets and to maintain its market share. There can be no assurances that Toyota will be able to compete successfully in the future.

The worldwide automotive industry is highly volatile. Each of the markets in which Toyota competes has been subject to considerable volatility in demand. Demand for vehicles depends to a large extent on social, political and economic conditions in a given market and the introduction of new vehicles and technologies. As Toyota’s revenues are derived from sales in markets worldwide, economic conditions in such markets are particularly important to Toyota. In Japan, the economy gradually recovered due to increasing personal consumption and last-minute demand spurred by the increase of the consumption tax. In the United States, the economy has seen ongoing gradual recovery mainly due to increasing personal consumption and the European economy has shown signs of recovery. Meanwhile, growth in emerging markets slowed down due to weakening currencies of emerging markets stemming from U.S. monetary easing beginning to be curtailed, increases in interest rates of emerging markets to protect the local currency, and political instability in some nations. The shifts in demand for automobiles is continuing, and it is unclear how this situation will transition in the future. Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations may be adversely affected if the shifts in demand for automobiles continues or progresses further. Demand may also be affected by factors directly impacting vehicle price or the cost of purchasing and operating vehicles such as sales and financing incentives, prices of raw materials and parts and components, cost of fuel and governmental regulations (including tariffs, import regulation and other taxes). Volatility in demand may lead to lower vehicle unit sales, which may result in downward price pressure and adversely affect Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations.

Toyota’s future success depends on its ability to offer new innovative competitively priced products that meet customer demand on a timely basis. Meeting customer demand by introducing attractive new vehicles and reducing the amount of time required for product development are critical to automotive manufacturers. In particular, it is critical to meet customer demand with respect to quality, safety and reliability. The timely introduction of new vehicle models, at competitive prices, meeting rapidly changing customer preferences and demand is more fundamental to Toyota’s success than ever, as the automotive market is rapidly transforming in light of the changing global economy. There is no assurance, however, that Toyota will adequately and appropriately respond to changing customer preferences and demand with respect to quality, safety, reliability, styling and other features in a timely manner. Even if Toyota succeeds in perceiving customer preferences and demand, there is no assurance that Toyota will be capable of developing and manufacturing new, price competitive products in a timely manner with its available technology, intellectual property, sources of raw materials and parts and components, and production capacity, including cost reduction capacity. Further, there is no assurance that Toyota will be able to implement capital expenditures at the level and times planned by management. Toyota’s inability to develop and offer products that meet customers’ preferences and demand with respect to quality, safety, reliability, styling and other features in a timely manner could result in a lower market share and reduced sales volumes and margins, and may adversely affect Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations.

Toyota’s ability to market and distribute effectively is an integral part of Toyota’s successful sales. Toyota’s success in the sale of vehicles depends on its ability to market and distribute effectively based on distribution networks and sales techniques tailored to the needs of its customers. There is no assurance that 5 Toyota will be able to develop sales techniques and distribution networks that effectively adapt to changing customer preferences or changes in the regulatory environment in the major markets in which it operates. Toyota’s inability to maintain well-developed sales techniques and distribution networks may result in decreased sales and market share and may adversely affect its financial condition and results of operations.

Toyota relies on suppliers for the provision of certain supplies including parts, components and raw materials. Toyota purchases supplies including parts, components and raw materials from a number of external suppliers located around the world. For some supplies, Toyota relies on a single supplier or a limited number of suppliers, whose replacement with another supplier may be difficult. Inability to obtain supplies from a single or limited source supplier may result in difficulty obtaining supplies and may restrict Toyota’s ability to produce vehicles. Furthermore, even if Toyota were to rely on a large number of suppliers, first-tier suppliers with whom Toyota directly transacts may in turn rely on a single second-tier supplier or limited second-tier suppliers. Toyota’s ability to continue to obtain supplies from its suppliers in a timely and cost-effective manner is subject to a number of factors, some of which are not within Toyota’s control. These factors include the ability of Toyota’s suppliers to provide a continued source of supply, and Toyota’s ability to effectively compete and obtain competitive prices from suppliers. A loss of any single or limited source supplier or inability to obtain supplies from suppliers in a timely and cost-effective manner could lead to increased costs or delays or suspensions in Toyota’s production.

Toyota’s operations are subject to currency and interest rate fluctuations. Toyota is sensitive to fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates and is principally exposed to fluctuations in the value of the Japanese yen, the U.S. dollar and the euro and, to a lesser extent, the Australian dollar, the Russian ruble, the Canadian dollar and the British pound. Toyota’s consolidated financial statements, which are presented in Japanese yen, are affected by foreign currency exchange fluctuations through translation risk, and changes in foreign currency exchange rates may also affect the price of products sold and materials purchased by Toyota in foreign currencies through transaction risk. In particular, strengthening of the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar can have an adverse effect on Toyota’s operating results.

Toyota may become subject to various legal proceedings. As an automotive manufacturer, Toyota may become subject to legal proceedings in respect of various issues, including product liability and infringement of intellectual property. Toyota may also be subject to legal proceedings brought by its shareholders and governmental proceedings and investigations. Toyota is in fact currently subject to a number of pending legal proceedings and government investigations. A negative outcome in one or more of these pending legal proceedings could adversely affect Toyota’s financial condition and results of operations. For a further discussion of governmental regulations, see “Information on the Company — Business Overview — Governmental Regulation, Environmental and Safety Standards” and for legal proceedings, please see “Information on the Company — Business Overview — Legal Proceedings”.

3. Compare the risks of Ford and Toyota

Ford and Toyota have very similar risk. The industry average for car manufacturers risks are relatively homologous. Ford: Decline in industry sales volume, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, due to financial crisis, recession, geopolitical events, or other factors, decline in industry sales volume, particularly in the United States, Europe, or China, due to financial crisis, recession, geopolitical events, or other factors, lower-than-anticipated market acceptance of Ford’s new or existing products, market shift away from sales of larger, more profitable vehicles beyond Ford’s current planning assumption, particularly in the United States, an increase in or continued volatility of fuel prices, or reduced availability of fuel, continued or increased price competition resulting from industry excess capacity, currency fluctuations, or other factors, fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates, commodity prices, and interest rates, adverse effects resulting from economic, geopolitical, or other events, Economic distress of suppliers that may require Ford to provide substantial financial support or take other measures to ensure supplies of components or materials and could increase costs, affect liquidity, or cause production constraints or disruptions, and etc. Ford Motor owes the government $5.9 billion it borrowed in June 2009, the same month GM filed for bankruptcy. By Sept. 15, Ford needs to start paying that money back. In a government filing, the carmaker said $577 million is due within the next year, and the full amount must be paid off by June 15, 2022.

Toyota: The worldwide automotive industry is highly volatile, Toyota’s future success depends on its ability to offer new innovative competitively priced products that meet customer demand on a timely basis, Toyota’s ability to market and distribute effectively is an integral part of Toyota’s successful sales, Toyota relies on suppliers for the provision of certain supplies including parts, components and raw materials. Toyota purchases supplies including parts, components and raw materials from a number of external suppliers located around the world, Toyota’s operations are subject to currency and interest rate fluctuations, Toyota may become subject to various legal proceedings, and etc. Toyota has many recalls, and class action lawsuits.

4. Why would the auditor be concerned with these risks?

Risk is a concept that is used to express uncertainty about events and/or their outcomes that could have a material effect on an organizations. Therefore, the auditor has to be very skeptical to the misstatements/or lack of on the financial reports. An auditor has to use professional judgment in the context related to the risks on the financials. Such as, I previously described as the primary risks for Ford and Toyota, the auditor has to access that the risks are associated with a wide range of both operational and financial reporting decisions, the risk are sometimes hard to quantify, and many organizations have these risks but do not necessarily have material misstatements, thus making it difficult for the auditors to know when a risk factor truly is leading to a material misstatement for their clients. (Chapter 7, p. 285).

http://corporate.ford.com/microsites/sustainability-report-2014-15/doc/sr14-form-10-k.pdf

http://www.toyota-global.com/investors/ir_library/sec/pdf/20-F_201403_final.pdf

Johnstone, K., Gramling, A., & Rittenberg, L. E. (2015). Auditing: A Risk Based-Approach to Conducting a Quality Audit. Boston, MA: Cengage