Types of Forecasting
Types of Forecasting
It is better to be approximately right than exactly wrong. Sure it is. Although it is desirable to be perfectly precise, it is unpractical and unachievable. The real world is inherently ambiguous and quantifiable probability is not a rule but instead it is an exception. The scope for perfect knowledge and certainty is limited in this world; to search for accuracy and precision is self-defeating (Taylor, 1999).
Most of the people’s efforts get hindered in pursuit for perfect information, perfect measurement, or perfect technique – this is normally known as planning paralysis. Desire to obtain accurate or perfect information should not prevent an individual from collecting any available information. One should search for sound approximations that will help him or her to accomplish the job being undertaken and also find solutions to unanswered questions.
A hypothetical example is the desire to find the perfect metric system. There are different kinds of things that can be measured just as there are numerous techniques to measure them. The list is endless. However, one should not be obsessed by the desire to find a perfect metric system to measure a particular item to the extent of getting metric mania. Since it is impossible to find a perfect metric system, it is advisable to use multiple metric systems before averaging them in a rational way.
People who are approximately right are in a better position than those who are absolutely wrong to achieve whatever project they are engaged in. those who find themselves paralyzed during the initial planning stages should consider whether they are being derailed by their quest to find the perfect method or metric in order to get perfect results. Therefore approximate outcomes are better than unattainable outcomes or no outcome at all.
Taylor, J. R. (1999). An Introduction to Error Analysis: The Study of Uncertainities in Physical Measurements. University Science Books: 128-129.
Click following link to download this document
PAD 520 Week 5 Discussion 2 Types of Forecasting.docx