Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes

Topics

Forecasting in Policy AnalysisTypes of FuturesApproaches to ForecastingExtrapolative ForecastingTheoretical ForecastingJudgmental Forecasting

Forecasting in Policy Analysis

ForecastingProjectionBased on Historical DataPredictionBased on TheoryConjectureBased on AssumptionAims of ForecastingUnderstanding Past Policies and Consequences

Forecasting in Policy Analysis, Continued

Types of Futures

Future Societal StatesPotential FuturesPlausible FuturesNormative FuturesGoals and Objectives of Normative FuturesMay Change Over TimeChallenge to Predict

Types of Futures, Continued

Sources of Goals, Objectives, and AlternativesAuthorityInsightMethodScientific TheoriesMotivationParallel CaseAnalogyEthical Systems

Approaches to Forecasting

Objectives of ForecastsConsequences of Existing PoliciesGovernment Does NothingConsequences of New PoliciesForecast of New PoliciesContents of New PoliciesForecast of Certain Areas in Adopted PoliciesBehavior of Policy StakeholdersSupport or New Policy

Approaches to Forecasting, Continued

Bases of ForecastsTrend ExtrapolationInductive LogicTheoryTestable Statements, Laws, or AssumptionsDeductive LogicInformed JudgmentAbductive LogicStart at the Future Works Backwards

Approaches to Forecasting, Continued

Check Your Understanding

Extrapolative Forecasting

AssumptionsPersistenceRegularityReliability and Validity of DataClassical Time-Series AnalysisSecular TrendSeasonal VariationsCyclical FluctuationsIrregular Movements

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Linear Trend EstimationDeviations CancelSquared Deviations Are A Minimum

Extrapolative Forecasting, continued

Oscillations

Cycles

Growth

Decline

Catastrophe

Extrapolative Forecasting, continued

Exponential WeightingIncreases At An Increasing RateData Transformation

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Catastrophe MethodologyDiscontinuous ProcessesUnexpected Event in Physical, Biological, or Social DomainSystems as WholesChange That Impact the Structure of a DomainIncremental DelayDue to Incomplete InformationCatastrophic Policy ChangeSudden Change in Policy When Incremental Delays Stop

Theoretical Forecasting

Theory Mapping

Theoretical Forecasting, Continued

Theoretical Modeling Causal Modeling

Theoretical Forecasting, Continued

Regression AnalysisSummary of MeasuresPoint and Interval EstimationReduces the Standard ErrorCorrelation AnalysisInterprets RelationshipsCoefficient of DeterminationCoefficient of Correlation

Judgmental Forecasting

The Delphi Technique

Judgmental Forecasting, Continued

Cross-Impact Analysis

Judgmental Forecasting, continued

Feasibility Assessment

Check Your Understanding

Summary

Forecasting in Policy AnalysisTypes of FuturesApproaches to ForecastingExtrapolative ForecastingTheoretical ForecastingJudgmental Forecasting