PAD 520 Week 5 Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes

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Policy Analysis and Program EvaluationPAD520

Forecasting Expected Policy Outcomes

Topics

Forecasting in Policy AnalysisTypes of FuturesApproaches to ForecastingExtrapolative ForecastingTheoretical ForecastingJudgmental Forecasting

Forecasting in Policy Analysis

ForecastingProjectionBased on Historical DataPredictionBased on TheoryConjectureBased on AssumptionAims of ForecastingUnderstanding Past Policies and Consequences

Forecasting in Policy Analysis, Continued

{5C22544A-7EE6-4342-B048-85BDC9FD1C3A}LIMITATIONS OF FORECASTINGForecast AccuracyAccuracy is based on the use of a single variable or uses complex forecast with limited number of models and variablesComparative YieldAccuracy is based on complex theory models, extrapolation, and informed judgmentContextAccuracy is based on three kinds of context: institutional, temporal, and historical. Accuracy is great in non-profit research institutes than in business or government agencies.

Types of Futures

Future Societal StatesPotential FuturesPlausible FuturesNormative FuturesGoals and Objectives of Normative FuturesMay Change Over TimeChallenge to Predict

Types of Futures, Continued

Sources of Goals, Objectives, and AlternativesAuthorityInsightMethodScientific TheoriesMotivationParallel CaseAnalogyEthical Systems

Approaches to Forecasting

Objectives of ForecastsConsequences of Existing PoliciesGovernment Does NothingConsequences of New PoliciesForecast of New PoliciesContents of New PoliciesForecast of Certain Areas in Adopted PoliciesBehavior of Policy StakeholdersSupport or New Policy

Approaches to Forecasting, Continued

Bases of ForecastsTrend ExtrapolationInductive LogicTheoryTestable Statements, Laws, or AssumptionsDeductive LogicInformed JudgmentAbductive LogicStart at the Future Works Backwards

Approaches to Forecasting, Continued

{8A107856-5554-42FB-B03E-39F5DBC370BA}Techniques of ForecastingApproachBasisAppropriate TechniqueProductExtrapolationExtrapolationClassical time-series analysisLinear trend estimationData transformationCatastrophe methodologyProjectionsTheoryTheoryTheory mappingCasual modelingRegression analysisPoint and interval estimationCorrelational analysisPredictionsJudgmentInformed JudgmentConventional Delphi and Policy DelphiCross-Impact analysisFeasibility assessmentConjectures

Check Your Understanding

Extrapolative Forecasting

AssumptionsPersistenceRegularityReliability and Validity of DataClassical Time-Series AnalysisSecular TrendSeasonal VariationsCyclical FluctuationsIrregular Movements

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Linear Trend EstimationDeviations CancelSquared Deviations Are A Minimum

Extrapolative Forecasting, continued

Oscillations

Cycles

Growth

Decline

Catastrophe

Extrapolative Forecasting, continued

Exponential WeightingIncreases At An Increasing RateData Transformation

Extrapolative Forecasting, Continued

Catastrophe MethodologyDiscontinuous ProcessesUnexpected Event in Physical, Biological, or Social DomainSystems as WholesChange That Impact the Structure of a DomainIncremental DelayDue to Incomplete InformationCatastrophic Policy ChangeSudden Change in Policy When Incremental Delays Stop

Theoretical Forecasting

Theory Mapping

Theoretical Forecasting, Continued

Theoretical Modeling Causal Modeling

Theoretical Forecasting, Continued

Regression AnalysisSummary of MeasuresPoint and Interval EstimationReduces the Standard ErrorCorrelation AnalysisInterprets RelationshipsCoefficient of DeterminationCoefficient of Correlation

Judgmental Forecasting

The Delphi Technique

Judgmental Forecasting, Continued

Cross-Impact Analysis

{8A107856-5554-42FB-B03E-39F5DBC370BA}Impact of on 0 1 2 3low highOutputEnergy and resource efficiencyProduction costsSoundness of companyPayment employeesJob QualityActive SumOutput3Energy and resource efficiencyProduction costsSoundness of CompanyPayment EmployeesJob QualityPassive Sum

Judgmental Forecasting, continued

Feasibility Assessment

{073A0DAA-6AF3-43AB-8588-CEC1D06C72B9}Option 1Option 2StakeholderPositionProbabilityResources AvailableResource RankFeasibility ScorePositionProbabilityResources AvailableResource RankFeasibility ScoreMayorCouncilTaxpayers

Check Your Understanding

Summary

Forecasting in Policy AnalysisTypes of FuturesApproaches to ForecastingExtrapolative ForecastingTheoretical ForecastingJudgmental Forecasting




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